A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
